How Bitcoin Will React After The U.S. Election

Can Historical Election Trends Predict Bitcoin’s Next Move?

Sep 20, 2024 - 22:00
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How Bitcoin Will React After The U.S. Election

As the U.S. presidential election approaches, it’s worth examining how past elections have influenced Bitcoin’s price. Historically, the U.S. stock market has shown notable trends around election periods. Given Bitcoin’s correlation with equities and, most notably, the S&P 500, these trends could offer insights into what might happen next.

S&P 500 Correlation

Bitcoin and the S&P 500 have historically held a strong correlation, particularly during BTC’s bull cycles and periods of a risk-on sentiment throughout traditional markets. This could phenomenon could potentially come to an end as Bitcoin matures and ‘decouples’ from equities and it’s narrative as a speculative asset. However there’s no evidence yet that this is the case.

Figure 1: Bitcoin & The S&P 500 180-day correlation over the past five years. View Live Chart

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